Since we're in the midst of a slow day, we're pulling one from Scoping. Just a few more opining on the whole delay in the IRS/UBS trial that was supposed start today.Judge Alan Gold is giving the parties three weeks to make nice and on July 29 will hold a conference call where the parties will either announce the number of Toblerones to be transferred or whether the parties will battle it out.
The delay kinda-sorta indicates that UBS wants to settle but not because it would be painless. The whole sitch has not been good for You and Us, as if any settlement is reached, they're likely going to be forking over a metric asston of cash. And since the IRS will likely to argue that these individuals (read: not poor people) haven't been paying taxes on their offshore assets for eternity, the payment will similar, if not greater than the $780 million paid by UBS earlier this year.
Then there have been the reports of the bank losing business because of the negative exposure and there's the whole, we're a Swiss Bank, we're super-secret image. Yeah, probably not so much any more.
On top of all that, the other trub that UBS will have is that the U.S. case is just the beginning. Other governments want their rich clients with offshore accounts paying back taxes too. What happens with in the U.S. will ultimately serve as a jumping off point for other courts to rule in a similar fashion.
So this all adds up to a lose-lose-lose-lose-lose for the Swiss Bank. So this is where we have to say: The "You and Us" talk better stop, UBS, cuz unless you got a turd in your pocket, it's just going to be YOU on this one.
I do recall from one of my up all night insomnia bouts where I wind up watching CSPAN till 3am seeing Gordon Brown in front of Parliment stating that the UK is going to hold off on pursuing tax evasion cases against offshore vehicles and the Swiss Banks for they have decided to let the United States set the precedent before they proceed. That once the US has set the precedent, the UK will attack as well.
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